What If…College Football Playoff Scenarios

The College Football Playoff Committee had a pretty easy job when they announced the top four teams. It was obvious to everyone that LSU, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma would be involved in some way. The only argument was – who gets the #1 seed. I believe they got the order right. Some – Tommy Nuggets – may cry about this for a while. However, LSU was the clear #1 team in the nation.

Obviously, everyone would love a much larger playoff picture. I decided to take a look at what games we could have if the playoff field were to expand.

To keep things consistent, I used the latest CFP rankings to determine seeding:

*Oklahoma State is #25 – it didn’t fit in the screenshot

Six Team Playoff

A six team playoff looks pretty nice. The top two seeds are rewarded with a bye in the opening round. Every Power 5 conference champion gets in, plus one at large team – Georgia. The one thing I do not like about this is that we could see another LSU-Georgia game.

If Georgia and Oregon were to swap places – this would be the ultimate playoff bracket for me. We would avoid another SEC rematch possibility until the championship game.

As it stands with the current format, teams can play an additional two games. This bracket sets up the possibility of a team playing three postseason games.

Eight Team Playoff

I like the opening round games we get in this bracket. Wisconsin comes in as a solid #8 seed, we would see if LSU is the real deal or if the Big 10 is legit. Clemson would get their first true test of the season against #6 Oregon. Ohio State would likely steamroll #7 Baylor to show how weak the Big 12 was this year.

Twelve Team Playoff

This is where things start to look messy. You have the possibility of teams playing an additional four postseason games with this bracket. We are also looking at a number of possible rematches – with Oregon and Utah immediately playing back-to-back games in the opening round. Georgia would play Auburn for a second time this season. Penn State would set up to play Ohio State again with a win – Florida would have a rematch against LSU with a win.

I would LOVE to watch a playoff like this, but many of the games are looking redundant.

For this to work they would need to have the ability to flex the seeding to avoid conference rematches in the opening round. If we swapped Auburn and Utah – we could get a rematch between Oregon and Auburn, along with an interesting Georgia and Utah game.

Sixteen Team Playoff

We get all of the same opening round games that we would get from the twelve team playoff. Rather than awarding a first round bye to the top four seeds, they would play against the 13th-16th ranked teams in the opening round.

This would buy us an interesting game with #13 Alabama against #4 Oklahoma – a game the Crimson Tide would likely win. #15 Notre Dame at #2 Ohio State would give us a classing matchup in the opening round.

The nice thing about this is, if you focus in on Oklahoma – they would have to prove they are for real against SEC competition before making it to the semifinal.

Thirty-Two Team Playoff

#26-#32 were based upon highest vote getters in the AP poll.

This is ridiculous. The two teams in the national championship would play five postseason games.

Final Thoughts

As it stands this season – I think the best playoff format would be a six team playoff. You include all of the Power 5 conference champions and one at large team. You also have an opportunity to reward the two best teams with a first round bye.

As we expand the playoff the games get a little redundant – the regular season would lose too much meaning if you make this thing too big.

What do you think the playoff should look like? Are you happy with the four team format, or would you prefer to expand this thing?

– Buzz

College Football Playoff: Random Observations While I Am Bored At Work

*Conference Champion
  • Only five teams have played in the CFP Championship: Oregon, Ohio State, Clemson, Alabama, and Georgia.
  • No #1 seed or #3 seed has ever won the college football playoff title.
  • Oklahoma has the most appearances without reaching the title game (3). They are also the only team to represent the Big 12 in the playoff.
  • All other Power 5 conferences have sent two members to the playoff.
  • Only two teams have reached the CFP without winning their conference: Alabama (2017) and Ohio State (2016).
  • Alabama (5), Clemson (4), Oklahoma (3) and Ohio State (2) are the only teams to appear in the playoff more than once.
*Rankings from 12/3/19

The current rankings lead me to believe that we will have a couple CFP firsts:

  • LSU can make their first CFP appearance.
  • This will be the first year Alabama is not in the CFP.
  • Utah and Baylor are in position to make their first CFP appearance – with some help.
  • Clemson can tie Alabama for the most CFP appearances (5).
  • Ohio State could be the first Big 10 team to snag the #1 seed.

That’s all for now. Let’s see how things play out this weekend before we get too far ahead of ourselves.

Some of us need to get back to our day job.
– Buzz

College Football Rankings And Picks: Week 4

It was quite the dud of a weekend for college football last week. There were no major matchups and not many games to look forward to. The most excitement came from the BYU and USC overtime game. Outside of that…kind of a meh weekend.

Many contributors to Hefty Headlines were invited to participate in our Week 3 poll. Once again, we had five people respond…for the fourth week in a row:

Hefty Headlines Top 25 Poll : Week 3

The Clemson Tigers remain at the top of our poll, followed by the Crimson Tide of Alabama. There is now only a 1 point difference in voting between the #1 and #2 teams. LSU remains as the #3 team. BYU once again jumps – from an unranked to #18. Partly because of their overtime win against last week’s #23 team USC – partly because of the rogue #1 vote they received. The biggest drop in rankings is awarded to #21 Texas A&M – who fell 8 spots. We also have #23 Virginia, #24 Cal, and #25 TCU showing up in our rankings for the first time.

RankTeamRecordPointsTrend
1Clemson (2)3 – 0121
2Alabama (1)3 – 0120
3LSU (1)3 – 0111
4Georgia3 – 0109
5Oklahoma3 – 0103-1
5Ohio State3 – 0103+2
7Notre Dame2 – 090+1
8Utah3 – 083+1
9Auburn3 – 073-3
10Florida3 – 069+1
11Texas2 – 165+2
12Michigan3 – 064+4
13UCF3 – 061-1
14Penn State3 – 054-4
15Wisconsin3 – 052
16Oregon2 – 150+1
17Iowa3 – 040+1
18BYU (1)2 – 136NR
18Washington State3 – 036+4
18Boise State3 – 036+2
21Texas A&M2 – 129-8
22Washington2 – 127+2
23Virginia3 – 021NR
24Cal3 – 0 14NR
25TCU3 – 0 9NR
  • Others receiving votes: Michigan State 8, Arizona State 8, Maryland 7, Wake Forest 3, Temple 2, Army 1, Louisiana -Lafayette1

Voting Trends

Week 4 Picks

Heisman Picks

Jalen Hurts – QB – Oklahoma

  • Hurts, Tua, Lawrence, Burrow, Fields – no point in ranking them, they will separate themselves once legitimate conference play begins.
  • He is barely edging out BYUs Jake Oldroyd
  • Boomer Sooner baby

Previous Weeks

  • Pre-Season: Trevor Lawrence – QB – Clemson
  • Week 1: Jalen Hurts – QB – Oklahoma
  • Week 2: Joe Burrow – QB – LSU, Jalen Hurts – QB – Oklahoma

Final Week Three Thoughts

  • Buzz: Honestly did not watch much football yesterday. The BYU game had a fun ending.
  • Chamby: No.
  • Tommy Nuggets: Plenty of upset opportunities, but everything mostly played out as it should have.
  • Stormin’ Mormon: BYU is taking the nation by storm.
  • Klyde Frog: UCLA still needs to bench DTR. And cupcake games are boring.

Wrap Up

We did it! We made it to a solid week of football. Auburn @ A&M, Michigan @ Wisconsin and Notre Dame @ Georgia!

– Buzz

College Football Rankings And Picks: Week 3

This past weekend was pretty solid for college football. We had two huge matchups – and only one lived up to the hype. There was also a late night surprise amid lighting storms out here on the West Coast.

Many contributors to Hefty Headlines were invited to participate in our Week 2 poll. Once again, we had five people respond…for the third week in a row:

Hefty Headlines Top 25 Poll : Week 2

The Clemson Tigers remain at the top of our poll for the third week in a row, followed by the Crimson Tide of Alabama. LSU climbs up to 3rd after an impressive win on the road against now # 13 Texas. #10 Penn State and #12 UCF continued to rise up the poll this week. The biggest drop in rankings is awarded to #23 Washington – who fell 12 spots after losing at home to Cal. #16 Michigan dropped 8 spots after an unimpressive win against unranked Army. The Maryland Terrapins make their first appearance in our poll, going from unranked to #19 this week.

T

RankTeamRecordPointsTrend
1Clemson (4)2 – 0124
2Alabama 2 – 0118
3LSU (1)2 – 0117+1
4Georgia2 – 0106-1
4Oklahoma2 – 0106
6Auburn2 – 096+1
7Ohio State2 – 095+1
8Notre Dame1 – 082+2
9Utah2 – 073+4
10Penn State2 – 071+5
11Florida2 – 066+1
12UCF2 – 062+6
13Texas1 – 160-7
13Texas A&M2 – 060+1
15Wisconsin1 – 158+1
16Michigan2 – 048-8
16Oregon1 – 148+1
18Iowa2 – 046+1
19Maryland2 – 034NR
20Boise State2 – 030+2
21Michigan State2 – 029+2
22Washington State2 – 027-1
23USC2 – 021NR
24Washington1 – 114-12
25Mississippi State2 – 09NR
  • Others receiving votes: Cal 6, Hawaii 5, Colorado 4, ASU 2, Virginia 2, Army 2.

Voting Trends

Week 3 Picks

Heisman Picks

#1 Jalen Hurts – QB – Oklahoma

  • We will see once he gets to league play.

#1 Joe Burrow – QB – LSU

  • Joe Burrow could surprise if he keeps up recent performance and beats Alabama.
  • Solid and consistent. 82% completion percentage. 749 YDS. 9 TD. 1 INT.
  • He made Matthew McConaughey sad.

#2 Tua Tagovailoa – QB – Alabama

  • Tua’s due for some big games against big teams. It’s almost like he’s flying under the radar.

Previous Weeks

  • Pre-Season: Trevor Lawrence – QB – Clemson
  • Week 1: Jalen Hurts – QB – Oklahoma

Final Week Three Thoughts

  • Buzz: LSU looks great. Joe Burrow finally gives them a solid and consistent QB to rally behind. The Maryland offense is really fun to watch. It was so disappointing to not see Army come away with the win in the Big House.
  • Chamby: Michigan still isn’t very good.
  • Tommy Nuggets: Getting really tired of week FBS and FCS scheduling…
  • Bix: PAC-12 is still hurting….
  • Klyde Frog: UCLA needs to bench DTR.

Wrap Up

This week provides a pretty weak slate of games. We are just biding our time until we get Auburn @ A&M and Notre Dame @ Georgia next weekend.

– Buzz

College Football Overhaul: Conference Realignment – Version 2.5

This is my second attempt at fixing college football. There have been a few subtle changes – but the general idea is the same. If you want to read in depth about Version 1.0, follow the link.

Version 1.0

Version 2.0

Changes:

  • Missouri and Nebraska have moved from the Pac 18 to the Big 18.
  • Oklahoma and Oklahoma State moved from the Big 18 to the Pac 18.
  • LSU, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State are now in the Big 18: Greater Texas.
  • Arkansas, Nebraska, and Missouri are now in the Big 18: Mississippi River.

This looks significantly better at first glance. The Mississippi River division of the Big 18 was awkward in Version 1.0. Now it is split into what is essentially North and South. The biggest issue I have with this is that Oklahoma and Texas are no longer in the same conference. However, they are now set up to meet in the National Semi-Final if everything pans out – so I like that angle. The addition of Oklahoma evens out the divisional powers in the Pac 18 too.

Version 2.5

Changes:

  • The River Valley Conference is now the Northeast Conference.
  • River Valley: Great Lakes is now called Northeast: River Valley.
  • River Valley: Northeast is now called Northeast: Coastal.
  • Louisville and Kentucky move from the ACC: Mideast to the Northeast: River Valley division.
  • Virginia and Virginia Tech move from the River Valley: Great Lakes to the ACC: Mideast.

The East Coast is a lot more visually appealing now. The divisions make a little more sense, and look less awkward. You never really think about Louisville and Kentucky as being close to all of the Big Ten schools until you look at a map – I think this works well.

Wrap Up

Looking at the map now, I’d like to find a way to strengthen the Northeast: Coastal division. What other changes would you like to see? What teams are still being left out?

– Buzz

College Football Overhaul: Conference Realignment

I love college football. Even with the many flaws that are within the game – it remains one of the most entertaining forms of content in the world. I got bored the other day and decided to see what I could do about making the season more meaningful and entertaining for me. Everyone thinks they can fix college football – so this is what I think would work.

With this map I have the sport moving to four conferences with 18 teams, 72 teams total in Division 1.

Each conference would have two divisions with nine teams. To help build the schedule – each team plays a game against those within their division. That’s 8 games. Teams get to 12 games by playing four of the teams in the other division within their conference. There would be no out of conference games.

Geography and traditional rivalries were heavily considered when I put this together. I respected state borders and kept in state teams in the same division.

Pac 18

When I started working on this map I started on the West Coast. The first version of this had Fresno State, Colorado State and Utah State included – but as I moved the map East I had to bump them out. The reality of the geographical college football landscape is that there are just a larger number of competitive teams on the East Coast. Therefore, I had to stretch the Pac 18 all the way to Missouri in order to make things work.

The Pac 18 Coastal has a traditional Pac 10 vibe to it. Boise State earns their way in with the Power 5 schools after proving year in and year out that they belong with the big dogs.

The Pac 18 Desert reminds me a bit of the old Big 12 – with Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri and Colorado joining the Arizona and Utah schools. BYU has to dump their conference independence – but fits in well in a division with their rival Utah.

Big 18

The Big 18 turned into a fun combination of many of today’s college football conferences. We have Big 12, Big Ten, AAC and SEC schools in this new conference.

The first thing I started with was finally placing all of the Texas schools in the same division. I then added in the two Oklahoma schools along with neighboring Arkansas to get to nine in the Greater Texas division.

The Mississippi River division was hard to put together. The name is from all of these schools coming from states that border the river. I wanted to keep in-state rivalries in tact – and it would be interesting to see the SEC schools going to play in-division games in the North late in the season.

River Valley

I am unsure about the name that I gave this conference – but all the schools are generally in the area of the Ohio River Valley.

The Great Lakes division has classic Big Ten vibes – and it finally pulls Notre Dame into a conference. I also included neighboring West Virginia and the two Virginia schools.

The Northeast division is probably the weakest of all from a football standpoint – but the strongest from a patriotic standpoint thanks to the two military academies.

ACC

The new ACC is a combination of SEC, ACC, and AAC schools. This is the strongest conference with Clemson, Alabama, and Georgia at the top.

The ACC: Southeast is the strongest division that I put together. You have SEC powers Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia joining the Florida schools. Georgia Tech is also there.

The ACC: Mideast is a strong baseball and basketball division – but the football is just OK. Clemson likely runs away with this division most years, but the battle for 2nd could be interesting. I had to bump Wake Forest out of this division to get it down to nine. For me, it did not make sense to have four schools coming from North Carolina – so the Demon Deacons got removed.

Playoffs

Playoffs would consist of 16 teams. The top two teams from each division make the playoffs. The top seed from one division would play the two seed from the opposite division. The winners would play for the conference championship.

The conference winners would get us to our college football playoff semi-final. The Pac 18 winner would play the Big 18 winner. The ACC winner would play the River Valley winner. The teams that win those National Semi-Finals would go on to play for the National Championship.

So you have 12 regular season games, a conference semi final, a conference final, a playoff semi final, and a national championship. That is a maximum of 16 games. Clemson played 15 games last year – not bad.

Wrap Up

After staring at this for a while it is really hard to if there is anything that I missed. Were any important or traditional schools left out that should have been included? Any ideas for better conference names? Is there a better way to draw this up? I’d love to hear any input and will update this if there are any big changes.

– Buzz

College Football Rankings And Picks: Week 2

Our first full weekend of college football for the year had some pretty decent games. The game on the largest stage came down to the wire – and Oregon managed to shit the bed again. We had an electric performance from Jalen Hurts in his Oklahoma debut. We also had a true freshman QB from Boise State lead his team to a comeback on the road at FSU.

Many contributors to Hefty Headlines were invited to participate in our Week 1 poll. Of the ten people invited – five responded, again. Here is what we have after the first full week of action:

Hefty Headlines Top 25 Poll : Week 1

The top of our poll has the same names we are used to. We had LSU jump into the top 5 after looking like they finally have a decent QB in Baton Rouge. Auburn leapt into the top 10 after an impressive win against the Ducks. There was some shuffling amongst the rest of the teams in our poll, likely due to us not remembering where we ranked teams last week.

Two teams debuted in our top 25; Syracuse at #25 and BYU at #20. The Cougars somehow managed to steal a first place vote from Clemson even after losing their opener to Utah. Two teams from the northwest managed to gather votes – even though they are not Division I programs. FCS Portland State received a #24 vote in one poll, Division III Linfield College received a #25 vote in another.

RankTeamRecordPointsTrend
1Clemson (3)1 – 0122
2Alabama (1)1 – 0119
3Georgia1 – 0107+1
4Oklahoma1 – 0102-1
4LSU1 – 0102+3
6Texas1 – 090
7Auburn1 – 084+8
8Ohio State1 – 083-3
8Michigan1 – 083
10Notre Dame1 – 078-1
11Washington1 – 069-1
12Florida1 – 064-1
13Utah1 – 061+4
14Texas A&M1 – 059+1
15Penn State1 – 056-1
16Wisconsin1 – 050+5
17Oregon0 – 140-5
18UCF1 – 037-2
19Iowa1 – 029-1
20BYU (1)0 – 125NR
21Washington State1 – 023+4
22Boise State1 – 022+2
23Stanford1 – 020-4
23Michigan State1 – 020-3
25Syracuse1 – 015NR
  • Others receiving votes: TCU 7, Iowa State 7, Oklahoma State 6, Cincinnati 6, Nebraska 5, Mississippi State 4, Army 3, Portland State 2, UL-Lafayette 1, Linfield College 1.

Week 2 Picks

Heisman Pick

Jalen Hurts – QB – Oklahoma

Not close right now. Murray or Baker never put up those numbers. He looked better than Kyler and Baker. Hurts could be the third Oklahoma transfer QB to win in a row. Jalen definitely stood out this weekend and he will continue to put up unreal numbers trying to outscore the Big 12 each game.

Other’s Receiving Votes: Tua Tagovailoa – Lawrence gets the hype but Tua will be showcased by Alabama to try and win it after being runner up last year.

  • Pre-Season: Trevor Lawrence – QB – Clemson

Final Week One Thoughts

  • Chamby: PAC 12 North is going to be interesting to watch. Oregon and Washington obviously look good. Teams like OSU can score on you so can’t have a bad day. Washington State always dangerous.
  • Buzz: Impressed with the Boise State offense and true freshman QB – coming back on the road at FSU. Oregon was embarrassing. Herbert is not a top QB prospect after that performance. If you are a top QB you simply cannot lose to a true freshman at a neutral place. Oklahoma looks great with Jalen Hurts – he is electric.
  • Stormin’ Mormon: BYU got screwed
  • Tommy Nuggets: It’s going to be a long season, buckle up…
  • Bix: Jacob Eason for Heisman!!

Wrap Up

We are all on board with Clemson beating Texas A&M this weekend, so I would put my money on A&M winning. There is a ton of football to watch this weekend – we will be back with our thoughts next week.

Geaux Tigers.
– Buzz

Hefty Headlines Presents: The 2019 College Football Pre-Season Rankings

The 2019 college football season kicks off on Saturday with Miami vs Florida at 4pm.

Prior to the start of the year – we wanted to get our rankings out. We will also include our CFP, Heisman, and National Champion predictions.

Many contributors to Hefty Headlines were invited to participate in this inaugural pre-season poll. Of the ten people invited – five responded. Anyways, here is what we have:

RankTeamRecordPoints
1Clemson (5)0 – 0125
2Alabama0 – 0120
3Oklahoma0 – 0112
4Georgia0 – 0110
5Ohio State0 – 099
6Texas0 – 096
7LSU0 – 095
8Michigan0 – 090
9Notre Dame0 – 081
10Washington0 – 080
11Florida0 – 079
12Oregon0 – 071
13Texas A&M 0 – 065
14Penn State0 – 048
15Auburn0 – 043
16UCF0 – 041
17Utah0 – 036
18Iowa0 – 030
19Stanford0 – 022
20Michigan State0 – 021
21Wisconsin0 – 020
22Miami0 – 017
23Army0 – 015
24Boise State0 – 014
25Washington State0 – 012
  • Others receiving votes: Nebraska 11, BYU 10, TCU 9, Syracuse 8, USC 8, Missouri 7, Iowa State 7, Northwestern 6, Mississippi State 6, Virginia Tech 5, Utah State 3, Fresno State 1, UL-Lafayette 1, Oklahoma State 1.

Heisman Pick

Trevor Lawrence – QB – Clemson

The most common name chosen was that of Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence. Other names that were brought up were Wisconsin RB Johnathan Taylor, Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa, and Oklahoma QB Jalen Hurts.

CFP Predictions

Clemson, Alabama, Texas, and ….Ohio State or Oklahoma.

Clemson and Alabama were unanimously selected to make it into the CFP. Texas was selected by the majority of our voters. Ohio State and Oklahoma were tied for the 4th spot. Washington, Michigan, and Notre Dame also received a vote.

National Champion

Clemson

The Tigers are our pick to win the College Football Playoff – receiving most of the votes. Alabama and Texas were also selected as potential winners.

Wrap Up

We will keep this going throughout the season – hopefully. Some weeks we will have more voters – some weeks we will have less. The only thing that is for sure is none of us really know what we are talking about – just like everyone else.

– Buzz